Will S-400 sale to Turkey scupper F-35 deal?

web6-2018-4-turkish-f-35-ceremony-.jpg Yesterday we took at the reasons Turkey made the controversial decision to purchase a Russian air defence system. Today – will Turkey get the F-35 stealth fighter— and how effective would the S-400 be in service? We asked Arda Mevlutoglu.  “It seems that the whole deal has turned into a game of who will blink first: Turkey repeatedly stated at all levels including the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that there will be no backing from the contract with Russia. The US on the other hand threatened to block the deliveries of the F-35, removing Turkey from the Joint Strike Fighter (F-35) programme and impose of sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA is a United States federal law that imposes sanctions on Iran, North Korea, and Russia). Unless an interim or an ‘innovative’ solution can be found, it seems that Turkey will not get F-35 if the deliveries of the S-400 commences. Turkey so far has taken delivery of two F-35A’s (18-0001 and 18-0002) in June last year. These aircraft are used in pilot and ground crew training at Luke AFB. Third and fourth aircraft are expected to be delivered in March this year. First two F-35A’s were planned to be flown to Turkey towards the end of this year. Malatya 7th Main Jet Base 172nd Squadron is the first unit to be equipped with F-35A’s, to be followed by 171. The other base to house F-35A’s is Eskisehir 1st Main Jet base with 111 and 112 Squadrons. D0A1-400-sm.jpg It should be noted that there has been a new move from the US side earlier this year —the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2019 was brought before President Trump on February 15th. This Act has a section about Turkey, one article deals with the sanctions for Turkish Presidential Protection Directorate, and another on deals with the S-400 procurement. The Act directs the Department of State to prepare an update to the report that was submitted by the Department of Defense late last year regarding the implications of S-400 deployment to Turkey. The update that this Act asks for will include a plan (or a roadmap) to impose sanctions to Turkey because of the S-400 procurement under CAATSA. The report will be take at least six months. but no later than 1 November 2019. In other words, the US government will prepare sanctions for Turkey if S-400 deliveries commence. The act also calls for no F-35 delivery to Turkey until the update is submitted.
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This act was signed by Trump on the very same day it was submitted for approval.

Our interview with an F-35 pilot here

“The airspace is filled with manned and unmanned air platforms of many military, civilian and ‘unknown’ users. To make things more complicated, the airspace is hammered by electronic warfare signals of all bands and spectrums.”

And if Turkey does get the S-400 will there be problems operating both US and Russian equipment? The Turkish Armed Forces already use a number of Russian made equipment such as BTR-60 and  armoured personnel carriers, Mi-17 general purpose helicopters (in Gendarmerie service), Kornet E anti tank guided missiles as well as infantry weapons like PKM’s, SVD’s, AK’s. However, a complex weapon system such as S-400 will be a first. There certainly are many risks and issues in terms of interoperability, logistics, training, infrastructure, doctrine, security and intelligence. DSC_8452 [1600x1200].jpg The effective use of such a long-range air defence system like S-400 in a complex air threat environment requires a multi-layered air defence network with overlapping weapon, sensor and intelligence gathering systems, connected to a network-monitored and controlled by command & control nodes. We are seeing the unforgiving and complex nature of modern air warfare in Eastern Syria on a daily basis, especially by the strikes of Israeli Air Force in Syria — the airspace is filled with manned and unmanned air platforms of many military, civilian and ‘unknown’ users. To make things more complicated, the airspace is hammered by electronic warfare signals of all bands and spectrums. Providing 3- dimensional situational awareness in real time, and establishing and sustaining air defence protection requires a robust, interoperable network of weapon and sensor systems. Stand-alone deployment of one or two S-400 batteries does not fit into this equation.

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Arda Mevlutoglu is an astronautical engineer. He is currently working as the VP of an international trading and consultancy company, focusing on defense and aerospace sector. He is currently working as the Vice President of Defense Programs at an international trading and consultancy company. His research focuses on defense industry technology, policies and geopolitical assessments, with a focus to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea region. His works have been published in various local and international journals such as Air Forces Monthly, Air International, Combat Aircraft, EurasiaCritic, ORSAM Middle East Analysis. He has been quoted by Financial Times, Reuters, BBC, Al Monitor, CNN Turk and TRT on issues covering Turkish defense industry and military developments.

Why Turkey is buying the Russian S-400 air defence system and why it’s making the US mad: A Turkish perspective

1051640405.jpg Turkey is buying an air defence system, the formidable S-400, from Russia. The deal has sparked fury from the US government, which is threatening economic sanctions and the withholding of F-35 stealth fighters. The situation is complicated and heated, there being several reasons for the US’ ire that include: the belief of some in the US that the international community should be united to punish Russia for annexing Crimea; the US wish to sell their own weapon systems; the complication of a NATO nation using high-tech Russian equipment; the risk of Russia accessing information on how well the S-400 system can detect and potentially counter the F-35, the mainstay of NATO’s future warplane force. To further complicate this, three NATO nations already operate Russian air defence systems (Greece, Slovakia & Bulgaria), something Turkish officials are keen to point out. Today the situation grew even more tense, as the two famously hot-headed national leaders, Presidents Trump and ErdoÄŸan fail to resolve the crisis. We spoke to Arda Mevlutoglu to find out more about why Turkey has chosen to buy the S-400 and whether it’s a good idea.  1066736499.jpg Why has Turkey chosen the Russian S-400 air defence system? The official reply to this question is based upon two main factors: 1. The reluctance and even denial of NATO partners to provide similar systems and technologies, and consequently- 2. (an) Attractive Russian offer. The Russian offer is stated as involving much better terms in pricing, delivery time and joint production. Last, but not least, S-400 is favoured because of its unrivalled performance, being able to eliminate targets as far as 400km. However, a close examination of these reasons leads to a different conclusion: the Russian side repeatedly state that the deal involves no transfer of technology or joint production, i.e the systems will be delivered ‘off-the-shelf’. Furthermore, Turkey officially stated that the S-400 system will not be integrated into Turkey’s air defence network, which in turn is a part of NATO air defence early warning system. In other words, S-400 battery will be used ‘standalone’, which will significantly decrease its effectiveness against especially low flying targets. How the interoperability or Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) issues will be resolved is a complete mystery. These inconsistencies suggest that the decision to purchase S-400 was mostly, if not completely a political decision, rather than a technical one. Боевые_вылеты_российской_авиации_с_аэродрома_«Хмеймим»_для_нанесения_ударов_по_объектам_террористов_в_Сирии_(9).jpg Therefore, the S-400 deal should not be examined without taking into consideration the other factors such as Syria, Turkish – Russian rapprochement after the Su-24 incident, and Turkey’s strained relations with the West after the July 15th 2016 coup attempt.”
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What are the reasons the US is unhappy about this? “The main publicised concern is the interference of the S-400 with F-35. Also there has been other issues stated by officials including the risk  of espionage and the weakening of NATO’s stance against Russia. The S-400 is a very advanced air defence system: It incorporates long range search and tracking radars, can be integrated into different intelligence and target acquisition systems and also has a high-performance command & control system. It is the backbone of Russian air defence today and the centrepiece of its Anti Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy. Today we see scores of S-400 battalions being deployed to annexed Crimea, Kaliningrad and Syria to establish ‘air defence bubbles’. Deployment of a similar system, albeit in a stand-alone mode, is stated as a risk to NATO assets deployed in or by Turkey. Turkey is a Level III partner of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program and one of the biggest customers of the aircraft with a requirement for 100 F-35As for the air force and around 16 – 20 F-35B STOVL version for the navy. (the F-35B deal is not yet confirmed) As a state-of-the-art 5th generation fighter, F-35 being in close proximity to S-400s is the most prominent concern voiced by NATO and US officials.

“Does Turkey need an S-400 in a standalone mode with so many military, industrial and political consequences? Probably not.” — Arda Mevlutoglu

There is also another issue in terms of industrial and human espionage. Strategic weapon systems such as S-400 are operated in an ‘out of the box and then plug & play’ fashion. The training of their crew, deployment and operation planning, Concept of Operation (CONOPS), maintenance and sustainment of these systems require constant communication and coordination between Turkey and Russia through military, industrial and bureaucratic channels. This fact alone is expressed as a risk, as Russia is officially the number 1 threat to NATO.” Are the US concerns valid? ilk f35 ucusu 2.jpg The US concerns are not totally unfounded. It is indeed a risk for NATO assets, one reason being the potential proximity of F-35s to the radars of S-400, especially its engagement radar. There also is a significant risk of HUMINT (human intelligence, traditional spying) operations by Russia, an intelligence gathering approach Russia favours. What is the the nature of the HUMINT threat?
The main threat here is that Russian spies posing as engineers or advisors coming to Turkey might attempt to infiltrate Turkish / NATO network. Another risk is Russian attempts to engage Turkish personnel. In other words, Russian intelligence might use S-400 delivery / training / support as a disguise for increased espionage activities.
And what exactly is the nature of the fears of the F-35s being near the S-400?
US / NATO circles voiced concerns about S-400’s sensors collecting sensitive information about F-35 such as detailed radar cross section profile, communications and electronic warfare performance. On the other hand, it should not be overlooked that Turkey is one of the oldest members of NATO, participating in many operations and making huge contribution to the collective security of the alliance. Turkey has all the means and capability to assess the possible security and intelligence risks of this programme and is taking measures accordingly. Furthermore, the S-400 is being procured as a national asset, it will not be integrated into the NATO network, meaning that it will be a separate, independent entity.”
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What is the general Turkish view of US Government opinions on the deal? The Turkish reaction to the US government can be summarised under three main topics: 1. There is widespread frustration and reaction to the US regarding its support to PYD, which is the Syrian branch of the PKK, which is officially recognised as a terrorist organisation by many international organisations and even the US itself. The open support of the US of the PYD is not a factor of the decision for S-400 per se, but it is indeed one of the main reasons for Turkey distancing itself. 2. US (as well as Germany and Netherlands) premature withdrawal of Patriot air defence batteries from Turkey, which were deployed under Operation Active Fence in 2015 created deep impact in the collective memories of Turkish public as well as decision makers. This decision by the three allied countries is seen as “our NATO allies failing to come to our aid in times of need”. The said batteries were subsequently replaced by a SAMP/T battery from Italy and a then a Patriot battery from Spain. 3. The reluctance of NATO allied countries, especially the US, to share know-how and joint production resulted in discomfort in Ankara, which has ambitious plans to establish a self-sufficient defence industry. More on this story here. Does Turkey need the S-400? emm0p2efa4s01.jpg “Currently the air defence of Turkey mostly relies on a fleet of around 240 F-16C/D fighter aircraft. Ground based air defence systems consist of Atilgan and Zipkin self-propelled low-altitude air defence systems using FIM-92 Stinger missiles, short-range Rapiers and medium-ranged Hawk XXI missiles Early warning is done through a fleet of four Boeing 737 Peace Eagle AEW&C aircraft, 14 TRS-22XX mobile long-range early warning radars and some NATO radar assets as well as NATO air defence early warning assets. Additionally, the 3rd Main Jet Base in Konya in central Anatolia is a Forward Operating Base for the NATO E-3 AWACS aircraft. atilgan-zipkin.jpg The requirement for a long-range high-altitude air defence system has been on the agenda since late 1980’s, when Iraq, Iran and Syria were conducting ambitious missile and WMD development programmes. The Gulf War in 1991 underlined this requirement and immediately afterwards, Turkey started studies of ground-based air defence systems. However, budget constraints prevented Turkey from moving forward. It was not until the early 2000’s that it resumed these studies. In 2006, separate projects were started to reinforce the air defence capability: off-the-shelf procurement of long-range air defence systems (LORAMIDS; Long Range Air and Missile Defence System) and low- and medium altitude air defence system development programmess (Hisar A and Hisar O respectively).”

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“The LORAMIDS tender saw three companies being shortlisted in late 2013: Chinese CPMIEC, French-Italian EUROSAM and the American Patriot. Turkey started contract negotiation with CPMIEC for the FD-2000 system. But increasing pressure from NATO and disagreements over transfer of technology resulted in the cancellation of the project in late 2015. Therefore, the answer to the question is —Turkey needs a long-range high-altitude air defence system, but does Turkey need an S-400 in a standalone mode with so many military, industrial and political consequences? Probably not.” Update on this story here.  About the author  20170913_121556.jpg Arda Mevlutoglu is an astronautical engineer. He is currently working as the VP of an international trading and consultancy company, focusing on defense and aerospace sector. He is currently working as the Vice President of Defense Programs at an international trading and consultancy company. His research focuses on defense industry technology, policies and geopolitical assessments, with a focus to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea region. His works have been published in various local and international journals such as Air Forces Monthly, Air International, Combat Aircraft, EurasiaCritic, ORSAM Middle East Analysis. He has been quoted by Financial Times, Reuters, BBC, Al Monitor, CNN Turk and TRT on issues covering Turkish defense industry and military developments.

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What was the fastest ever European aircraft — and why hasn’t its record been topped in half a century?

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The Mirage 2000 – fast, but not the fastest.
We all know the fastest US plane was the X-15 or SR-71, and the fastest Soviet was MiG-25 – but what was the fastest European?  Was it Swedish? Nope, the fastest Swede was the Mach 2.1 Viggen. British then? The Lightning, depending on who you talk to – had a top speed of between Mach 2.0 and 2.3 — close, but no cigar. German? Nowhere near – the EWR VJ 101 experimental jump-jet only got to Mach 1.04 (the Mach 1.28 X-31 was half American). Is it a trick question – Europe collaboration? Nope — the Tornado could allegedly get to Mach 2.27 (though presumably only if the pilot skipped lunch) — and no, it’s not Concorde either which topped out at Mach 2.23 (though normal operating limit was 2.04)
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West German jump-jet barely overtaking a bicycle.
So French right? Yes, but not an aircraft that made operational service. The fastest operational aircraft was the Mirage F1 which clocked around 2.22, the Mirage 2000 is fast too — around 2.2 —and the mighty Mirage IV nuclear bomber may have been able to exceed 2.2, the extremely capable Mirage 4000 could make Mach 2.2, but the fastest was an experimental swing-wing. According to Dassault — “Mirage G8 02 made its maiden flight at Istres, on July 13, 1972, piloted by Jean-Marie Saget. For its first anniversary – and its 74th sortie – on July 13, 1973, it achieved the highest speed ever for an aircraft in Western Europe: Mach 2.34 at 42,000 ft.”
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The fastest European since Cicciolina. Image credit: Dassault
France had been flirting with variable geometry (or swing-) wings for a while, sometimes in support of the aborted AFVG. These studies had been a little heavy for French tastes, its air force and navy generally favouring light or middle-weight fighters.
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A very French ‘Tornado’ – the Mirage G4. The G8s were converted G4s.
The general staff asked Dassault to look into a lighter (and cheaper) shorter ranged single-seat interceptor, and the two G8s (which were converted G4s) were flown in support of this effort. The second aircraft G8 02 was an actual single-seater (the backseat removed) and simpler weapon system introduced — it is likely that these weight savings helped it achieved its record speed. A record that has stood for 46 years! 

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Why hasn’t the record been broken?
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The Chinese J-20.
So why has it not been broken? The main limiting factors on an aircraft flying beyond Mach 2.2 are canopy transparency materials and the engine’s air intake. The former requires the use of a material for the cockpit transparency (the ‘window’) that doesn’t melt at the temperatures created by the air friction of such high speed. Efficiency of the intake airflow slowing device on the intake is also important; to exceed around Mach 1.8 requires a means of slowing and controlling the airflow to the engine to a speed it can tolerate, this can done with shock-cones (as is the case with the Mirage family), splitter plates (like the Phantom) or ramps or variable geometry ramps (as used by the F-15 and Tornado). A modern modern solution is the diverterless supersonic inlet (DSI) It consists of a bump and a forward-swept inlet cowl, and can be seen on the US’ F-35 and the Chinese JL-9, J-10B/C and J-20 and the Pakistani/Chinese JF-17.
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The Mirage 4000, a French equivalent to the US Strike Eagle — that never entered service, could reach Mach 2.2.
Specialising aircraft engines for flight much above Mach 2.3 demands huge compromises in size and fuel consumption at lower speeds. These type of speeds have been deemed unnecessary for modern fighters (though MiG may disagree), though fourth and fifth fighters do speed far more time at supersonic speeds than did the preceding generations.
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Bump ‘n’ grind – the F-35s bumpy Divertless Supersonic Intakes (DSI). As well as being relatively simple, DSI’s are generally less radar reflective than intake ramps or splitter plates.
A severely sweptback wing is useful for low drag at supersonic speeds, but a thin wing relatively unswept wing is another approach – the F-104 Starfighter being an example. Airframe materials also come into it, and maybe one of the reasons that the F-22 (Mach 2.25) uses more titanium and less plastics than its slower peers the Typhoon and Rafale (Mach 2.05 and Mach 1.8 respectively) is its need to withstand prolonged supersonic flight and a higher absolute top speed. 
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The manned missile sweeps for no man. OK, it sweeps a little.
As Jim Smith explained to HushKit, “Aerodynamic heating is a problem, as conventional aluminium alloys lose strength. So special materials are needed if extended flight above Mach 2 is required, for example in the SR-71. Intakes will generally be complex and have variable geometry, normally using ramps or a translating cone to create a shock structure which reduces the flow to subsonic speed. The configuration generally needs to be such that the wing leading edge sits behind the Mach cone from the aircraft nose to avoid high wave drag.” A Typhoon or Rafale has the power to achieve a new European record, but converting these types to make this possible would be expensive and not overly impressive as  unless it was radically modified neither would be able exceed the speeds of the MiG-25 or SR-71.
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The two G8s demonstrating the range of available wingsweep.
You may also enjoy Ten incredible cancelled Soviet fighter aircraft, Ten worst Soviet aircraft, Ten incredible cancelled military aircraft, Fighter aircraft news round-up,  11 Cancelled French aircraft or the 10 worst British military aircraft, Su-35 versusTyphoon, 10 Best fighters of World War II , Su-35 versus Typhoon, top WVR and BVR fighters of today, an interview with a Super Hornet pilot and a Pacifist’s Guide to Warplanes. Flying and fighting in the Tornado. Was the Spitfire overrated? Want something more bizarre? Try Sigmund Freud’s Guide to Spyplanes. The Top Ten fictional aircraft is a fascinating read, as is The Strange Story and The Planet Satellite. The Fashion Versus Aircraft Camo is also a real cracker. Those interested in the Cold Way should read A pilot’s guide to flying and fighting in the Lightning. Those feeling less belligerent may enjoy A pilot’s farewell to the Airbus A340. Looking for something more humorous? Have a look at this F-35 satire and ‘Werner Herzog’s Guide to pusher bi-planes or the Ten most boring aircraft. In the mood for something more offensive? Try the NSFW 10 best looking American airplanes, or the same but for Canadians. 10 great aircraft stymied by the US.  li4.jpg

Interview with air warfare reporter Valerie Insinna

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  I spoke to Defence News Air Warfare Reporter Valerie Insinna. Here she describes the highs and lows of defence reporting, her love for the X-32, the Hip Hop F-35B video — and I totally fail to get her to share her opinion on the controversial KC-46 tanker.  What is your role and who do you work for? I’m the air warfare reporter for Defense News. Mostly my coverage centees on US Air Force stuff, with a little Navy/Marine Corps aviation and a sprinkle of international defense aviation for flavor. How did you start in defence journalism? By accident, really, My first job out of college was a gig as an editorial assistant at the Tokyo-Chunichi Shimbun’s DC offices, and basically that meant that I did a lot of grunt work for Japanese reporters for about three years. Initially, I helped those correspondents cover the State Department, as I wanted to write about international affairs. But when I got transferred to covering the Pentagon for them, it opened up a whole new world to me. I liked the candor of the military (relative to the State Department, at least) and the camaraderie of the Pentagon press corps, and realized that almost everything that interested me about international affairs also had a national security angle to it. So I applied for a job at National Defense Magazine, and the rest is history. What are the biggest pitfalls facing defence writers?  Our beat is so big–there are always so many stories out there to cover, and we owe it to the public to cover it well. But the general public doesn’t know a lot about the Defense Department, and a lot of the policy and technology is very difficult to explain (and even more difficult to explain in a way that generates and retains people’s interest). I struggle with all those issues daily, and often think about how I can be doing my job a lot better. What have been the highest and lowest points of your career so far?  DSlQEtgX4AIpfHS.jpg My low point was definitely missing Scott Disick (Kourtney Kardashian’s ex husband and a major figure on Keeping Up With the Kardashians) show up to Saab’s Gripen display at Farnborough 2016. I’m one of maybe ten avgeeks in the world who also love trashy reality TV shows, so I feel like I blew my major crossover opportunity.
I hope there are more high points of my career coming…
Honestly, it changes all the time. It was a hard story to write because of how tragic the subject matter was, but I’m pretty proud of this story exploring the cause of a horrific KC-130T crash. I also went to Romania and Poland last summer to explore what the US Air Force is doing with the money it’s spending to deter Russia, and all of the stories that came out of that trip are ones I really loved producing. I don’t think many reporters in the US were paying attention to those investments.  The F-35 — best and worst thing about the programme?  I try to remain as neutral on the F-35 programme as possible. I don’t want my audience to be able to point to me as either an F-35 fan or critic. So, in that spirit:
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(Fif: means to plead the fifth amendment; to not tell something to someone else because of whatever circumstances. )
What is the most over-rated military aircraft, and why?  I’m not a pilot, so who am I to say an aircraft is overrated?  ..and under-rated?  My beloved X-32, of course. His smile is a gift.x-32-c35-1781-65.jpg What is the most scandalous thing in military aircraft procurement?  Oh man, where to start? …anywhere..go on One thing I’ve been thinking a lot about is the Defense Department budget, how it gets made, and how little insight or transparency we have into what discussions are happening and why. I don’t know if it’s scandalous, but I don’t think the American public understands how many different stakeholders have their hands in military procurement, and all of these entities have their own opinions.Within a given service, you have leadership, but also the heads of commands. The Office of the Secretary of Defense can basically rule things in or out, and there are organisations like the office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) that have a ton of influence. And this is even before it gets to Congress. So when you see a service brief something new in the FY20 budget and it’s surprising or ridiculous or a big change, I always start to wonder who were the parties supporting it and why? Is it really a strategy-driven decision, or was it a compromise driven by funding or other concerns? Are there big differences between the service and OSD’s position? Are people within the service fighting over this? The revolving door between Pentagon and industry is also something that gives an appearance of impropriety, even when all rules are followed. I think those laws should be re-examined. Of course, it makes sense that former military officials go on to jobs where their expertise is of use, but perhaps more oversight might be called for.
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How much are US procurement decisions affected by pork barrel politics?  48888444.jpg It happens a lot, and not just in procurement matters, but also in terms of how aircraft are based and how long they are maintained. Local National Guard units have strong pull with Congress, which has used to its advantage in the past when the active duty service wasn’t cooperative, sometimes to great effect. Some parochialism isn’t always bad, either. The lawmakers fighting to keep the A-10 were all from states that have units operating it. In the end, I think even most Air Force officials now agree that retiring them circa 2015 would have been a mistake. And sometimes Congress can be incentivised to come onboard with a new plan as long as they see the benefits. The JSTARS recap would have probably been a great program for Georgia. In the end the US Air Force decided to take a more disaggregated approach, and they took care to explain that to Congress and to create some opportunities for Georgia to be a player in the future Advanced Battle Management System concept that is now replacing JSTARS. But yeah, supporting something just because it benefits your district financially is bad, bad, bad. Too bad almost everyone does it in Congress, so no one really goes after the problem. Was the decision to go from Airbus to Boeing for USAF the right one?  I think we’ll see a definitive answer to that in the next decade. Go on… I think we’ll see a definitive answer to that in the next decade, but I really don’t like weighing in with my opinion. As a journalist, it’s really important for me to be able to cover KC-46 fairly, so my approach with that program is to scrutinise closely but also to wait and see before coming to a personal judgement. If Boeing is able to deliver tankers meeting the Air Force’s specifications at the lowest price possible, the service can perhaps make the argument that it was worth the wait. But Airbus has a proven tanker already in operation, which I think speaks for itself. What is the technology to look out for in the future of military aviation?  Well, if you ask the US Air Force, it’s systems of systems of systems of systems of systems of systems of systems of systems…. What should I have asked you? download.jpgYou should have asked me about my kitten, Vlad the Impaler! He’s adorable! What ethical considerations do defence reporters have to negotiate in dealing with the Military Industrial Complex?  I thought about this question for a long, long time. I think it’s one of the toughest things we deal with. And I think it all comes back to the adage, “Trust, but verify.” Being a good journalist involves building relationships with sources throughout government, industry, the operational community and other organisations. And in order to get them to tell you things that they aren’t telling other people, there has to be a certain amount of trust and respect established.They have to trust you enough to give you that information, and you have to trust them enough to believe it…but from there, it’s time to put on your critic’s hat and verify with other sources to ensure its the truth and to make sure you have the full story. I have sources that I really like as people, we can each chat about our personal lives and interests over a beer and whatever. But when it comes down to it, they know they are not safe from getting a call from me where I am asking them to answer for something negative, and they don’t take it personally when I do (and, trust me, I do). Do you have a favourite aircraft and if so, why?  u2one (1).jpg I know probably everyone says these two, but are there any aircraft more beautiful than the SR-71 or U-2? Also, they are painted black, and I’m partial to the colour. Does a defence reporter’s nationality affect how they write about military matters, if so, how?  I think it definitely does. I think most reporters naturally write what is in their own backyards, and as much as one tries to be unbiased, we all want our country to be successful, to protect its service-members and not waste our money. So maybe we’re all a little too soft on our own nations’ defence apparatus at times. But even beyond that, I think there’s a bit of a divide on how US and European defence writers operate. I think the big glossy feature magazine piece on particular military technologies tend to be really big in Europe even now, so reporters across the pond tend to be military technology specialists who understand aircraft at a level that absolutely blows my mind. There are exceptions, but I think the European defence journalist crowd is predominantly made up of old dudes perhaps for that reason. BS-md-sail-ferron-p17.jpg In the US, the focus is on breaking news, exposing new information or problems that institutions are trying to bury, and generating content. To do that, you don’t need to know an aircraft at the same level as an engineer does, you just have to be a good journalist. Because the barriers to entry are different, there is a balance between more seasoned reporters and young, hungry ones, and there’s more of a gender balance as well (even at the top levels, with editors and managers).
What is the story with your hip-hop F-35B video?  I don’t know, dude. I just always think of the aft portion of a plane as the aircraft booty, and I love late 90s/early 00s hip hop music. Defense aviation can be a stuffy place, so it’s nice to have a laugh over something stupid sometimes. uuvjj2jibz2cmkab4zcv-1.jpg

A different Supermarine S7 – A rival racer ‘from R.J. Mitchell’

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Last week, we imagined a superior racing aircraft designed by Spitfire creator R.J. Mitchell. Illustrator Edward Ward thinks he can do even better. 
Love what you’ve come up with here. Good looking aircraft! Whilst I think what you propose is perfectly possible I do wonder about a couple of aspects (though of course this is massive speculation so I freely admit there are no right or wrong answers). With regard to the airframe I find everything you say to be highly likely though I do wonder about the wings.
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Supermarine Type 224 fighter was intended as a Gauntlet replacement, it never entered service.
Given that Mitchell had utilised cantilever wings on the S.4 and would use them again on the Spitfire (and indeed the more relevant to the timeframe Type 224), I am slightly surprised that he wouldn’t have applied them to the S.7. Pressures of time perhaps? I think they’d be a definite on the S.8 though. I wonder if he might have cleaned up the strut arrangement for the floats as well? The  which Mitchell began designing in 1931 had an inverted gull wing and trousered undercarriage, something along those lines could fit the bill for a floatplane.
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Our proposed S7 from last week
However, to my mind the Schneider trophy was won or lost not by a seaplane’s airframe but by its engine. The Gloster VI was in some respects more aerodynamically advanced than the S.6, it certainly had a finer fuselage form, and there is, so far as I can tell, no reason to suppose that Gloster would not have won the Trophy in 1931 or set the world speed record, with their own floatplane had it been fitted with the Rolls-Royce R rather than the notably long-in-the-tooth Napier Lion.
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Another use of the Napier Lion. Credit: www.bluebird-electric.net
With regard to the Rolls-Royce R, I am not entirely sure that it was actually at the limit of its development. For the S.6s the engine was not flown at full power, and operated on an overly rich fuel mixture which also sapped power but increased reliability. Further development work was discussed, though not undertaken, by the RAE in 1932 advocating testing four engines to destruction. Not only that but the R was still a very young engine, having first run in 1929. By contrast the Napier Lion first ran in 1917 and developed 450hp, twelve years later it was delivering 1200hp, and before it managed that output it had powered the S.5 to win the Schneider in Venice. If one looks at the later Rolls-Royce  Merlin (which owed a lot to the R) the power increase from an initial 750hp to 2000hp was mostly delivered through a process of aggressive supercharging and much higher octane rating of the fuel.
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An often overlooked, though totally critical figure in the success of the Schneider Trophy racers was fuel expert Rod Banks of the Anglo-American oil company. Whilst seconded to the Schneider team From 1929 – 31 he developed the 30% benzole, 60% methanol, 10% acetone (yes, the Supermarine S.6 was partly fuelled by nail-polish remover) plus 4.2cc of tetra-ethyl lead per gallon fuel blend that powered the S.6b to its world record speed in 1931. Later Banks was drafted in by FIAT when the AS.6 of the Macchi MC.72 failed to work properly. The success of his work there being reflected by the 440mph record set by that aircraft in 1934 and later still his work was crucial in maintaining the dominance of British aircraft engines over their larger volume German counterparts. It is likely that spurred by the further development of the S.7, Banks would have furthered the development of exotic fuels for the R engine, readily able to accept a more potent supercharge without detonation.
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Hooker and a Harrier. Sir Stanley Hooker. From left to right Fred Sutton, Chief Flight Development Engineer, John Farley, Chief Test Pilot. Sir Stanley Hooker, John Dale, Chief Pegasus Development Engineer, Bill Bedford, former Chief Test Pilot. Image credit: Rolls-Royce.
The suggestion that the R might be developed into a V-16 is the most fanciful aspect you present though. Rolls-Royce has never built a V-16. Indeed, historically Rolls-Royce was far more likely to bolt two V-12s or V-8s onto a common crankcase in an X formation. Rolls-Royce’s solitary 16 cylinder engine was the Eagle XVI, an X-16. Later when the war was on and the need for increasing the power of the Merlin was at its most urgent (and money was no object) Rolls-Royce still didn’t go down the extra cylinders route but improved supercharging (notably Stanley Hooker gained a 30% increase in power in one fell swoop by improving the internal streamlining of the supercharger) and ultimately running on 130 octane fuel, though this of course was not available in 1931. Talking of things that were not available in 1931, I am unsure if ethylene glycol was available as a coolant but if it was it would have improved the radiator situation, likewise Rolls-Royce were tinkering with evaporative (or steam) cooling during this period for high performance applications and it is possible they might have managed to shoehorn it onto the S.7. Mitchell was not averse to the idea as his (unsuccessful) Type 224 employed this novel cooling system.
So, I propose a cantilever winged version with an X-24 engine formed from two Rolls-Royce Rs on a common crankcase (call it the Rolls-Royce RR) with an indeterminate calling system, a VP airscrew and cleaned up fuselage and float struts (though I suspect these might have been under too great stress-loading to be viable, ah well…).
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50 years ago today Concorde first flew

Concorde-through-air-overlay.jpg As the most beautiful manmade object celebrates half a century since its first flight, aviation journalist Joe Coles reflects upon the supersonic airliner’s iconic design, and its place in visual culture and the popular imagination.
The future began 50 years ago today. On 2 March 1969 onlookers at Toulouse Airport gazed skyward as a new shape thundered into the air. Concorde, the most beautiful manmade object ever created, was utterly different from any other airliner in service. Unlike the other airliners, which were conservative ‘cigars with wings’, Concorde was a swan-like dart of seductive curves, its form screaming urgency and modernity. It was extremely fast; the previous generation of airliners had traveled below the speed of sound — Concorde could go more than twice that. At 1,340 mph it would travel 22 miles a minute! The speed of sound is measured as a ‘Mach’ figure, and Concorde could exceed Mach 2. The only operational aircraft of the time that could do this were military, and apart from specialised spy-planes, they could only travel at such a fuel-thirsty pace for a matter of minutes. What had been the exclusive realm of fighter pilots in g-suits, was now shared with Chanel-wearing actors sipping champagne. Not only did they travel supersonically in great comfort, they did it for hours. Journey times were snipped in two. Traveling from Heathrow to Kennedy airport, this miraculous machine would arrive 90 minutes before it had taken off, local time. Concorde would make the extraordinary every-day.

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Speed alone would not have made Concorde as loved as it became, and as was mentioned, it was also extremely beautiful. The 1960s was an era of television, cinema and photography, and it is via the latter that Concorde seduced the world. Throughout its life it was beloved by photographers, artists and the public alike, but were its good looks accidental? When I asked the supercar designer Peter Stevens why streamlined designs are often gorgeous, he noted that to some extent we ‘see’ with our hands. When we look at an object we imagine running our hands across it, “You can push the airflow around but you cannot force it to do what it does not want to do. I see the air as being lazy and wanting to take the least stressful path, and it is the same for your hand when passing over a form. Natural transitions, as seen in nature, almost always have something to tell us about the best aerodynamic shapes.” With Concorde, the form absolutely followed function, and this resulted in an exceptionally beautiful design. Though cars can sacrifice aerodynamic efficiency for beauty, an aircraft cannot – and this pleasing shape was indeed a desirable byproduct. The wing needed to be sharply swept back for efficient flight at Mach 2, but a simple triangular shape (known as a delta for its similarity to the shape of the Greek letter) would have resulted in an exceptionally long take-off distance and unpleasant handling characteristics. An ‘ogival delta’ proved the solution. Appropriately for this cathedral to speed, the ogee is a s-curved shape common in English gothic architecture. A new Europe images.jpgdownload-5.jpgdownload-9.jpgdownload-4.jpgdownload-8.jpg Europe was uniting, partly as a counter to the economic supremacy of the USA, and the Concorde was the child of a very special friendship between Britain and France. As well as a hope for a more united Europe, it also spoke of a global utopian desire. With the moon landings a few months away, 1969 carried a strong sense of optimism. Boundaries were being broken both technologically and socially, and anything was possible. Concorde was almost a spaceship, and one that anyone rich enough could fly on. Earlier advertising for airliners had compared them to ocean liners, but this was a rocket-ship. Much of the marketing was based on this clean, futuristic image, a probing, heroic machine in empty skies. Far from the egalitarian vision of cheap, mass air travel delivered by the Boeing range, the Concorde experience was elitist and extremely expensive. Considering the huge operating costs, it had to be. Champagne, lobster, caviar and foie gras delivered by immaculately dressed stewards made Concorde the highest, fastest, high-class restaurant in the world. The creation of advanced aeroplanes is a very conspicuous way to wave the flag. Though its cultural exports were booming in the 1960s (notably music and fashion), Britain’s earlier position as leader in the automotive and aeronautical industries was on the wane. France’s, meanwhile, was on the rise. Civil aviation is historically dependent on military research, and as Britain’s military aircraft manufacturing shrunk, its civil industry followed suit. Britain had produced the first jetliner, the beautiful Comet, in 1947, but now America had almost complete market dominance. Since the mid-1940s the US had usurped Britain and Germany as the most technologically advanced nation. The Anglo-French Concorde was a bold counter-attack from Europe. Concorde was twice as fast as any other operational airliner in 1969, and this remains true today. Though the Soviet equivalent, the Tupolev Tu-144 (nicknamed the ‘Concordski’), had beaten the Concorde into the air by a matter of weeks, this inferior rival would ultimately fail, leaving the Concorde as the only successful supersonic jetliner. Its US rival, the Boeing 2707, though bigger and faster, proved so expensive and technically daunting it was canceled before it flew. With the nascent 747, the US was now betting the farm on size and efficiency, while Europe was rooting for speed and luxury. Though it first flew in the 1960s and found fame in the 1970s, the Concorde’s roots lay in the 1950s, and in many ways it represented the ultimate ‘50s vision of the future. Until 1969, progress had a close relationship with speed: technology gave us faster trains, cars, ships and aeropalnes. With Concorde, and military aircraft generally, speed came up against practicality — was it necessary to go any faster? Market forces said ‘no’. In 1969, the F-4 fighter had a top speed of Mach 2.2. Today, the US’ most advanced fighter, the F-35, can reach Mach 1.6. In 1969, Concorde could exceed Mach 2, in 2019 the fastest airliner cannot achieve Mach 1. Simply put, aeroplanes stopped getting faster in 1969.
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Selling the supersonic dream 1434577801474-1.jpg Concorde’s shape sold itself, as mentioned, the power of Concorde is largely in the mind, and equally emotive to onlookers as to passengers. The wing is the most visible symbol of flight, had Concorde’s been a simple straight-edged triangle it would have communicated speed and aggression. However, the addition of curves on Concorde’s iconic wing added a unique sensuality; the future was fast, but it was also elegant. Design was once satirically described as the art of adding curves, by this measure Concorde was a masterpiece. This sophistication was clearly a marketing coup, with many on both sides of the Atlantic entertaining the idea of Europe as being more ‘sophisticated’ than America, a nation that some saw as a brash new upstart. 1434577801846.jpg Air France’s branding led the way with an appropriately modern appearance for both the exterior and interior of the aircraft. British Airways was a little slower, but the company’s radical 1984 revamp transformed the Concorde brand. The new look moved away from staid, patriotic Britishness to a fresher, and swifter, present. Gone was the old-fashioned typeface that had declared ‘British’ across the forward fuselage in a seriffed, curved and rather imperial style, replaced with a bold but smaller all caps ‘British Airways’. The famous, blue ‘Speedbird’ motif that ran the length of the fuselage was superseded by a more dynamic, red ‘Speedwing’. Whereas the older look was one of national confidence and a pride in the past, the new image whispered high velocity, style and refined luxury. In 1997, British Airways enjoyed another, arguably less popular, rebranding. The geometrically tidy national colours on the tail become a wavy, irregular ‘fluttering banner’. The Speedwing was replaced with a smaller ribbon known as the ‘Speedmarque’. This lighter look, though less authoritarian, was Concorde’s blandest scheme. Yet despite this, Concorde never grew boring, and it was a sad occasion when the type was retired in 2003, a mere 27 years after the aircraft was introduced to commercial service. It died a champion and in its absence the world slowed down. 1434577801660.jpg Key to Concorde’s iconic mystique was its failure. Though technologically it was a resounding success, it was a commercial disappointment: a mere twenty were built, which is a tiny amount when compared to its contemporary, the larger Boeing 747, of which over 1,500 have been produced (and continue to be produced in 2019). Though at times Concorde was profitable, it was expensive to operate and maintain — and this become starkly apparent in its final years. This meant its unusual shape was always special, always identifiable. Familiarity breeds contempt, but Concorde remained gloriously special to the end. The original version of this article can be seen here with wonderful images  1434584935075.jpg

World’s worst air force (2019)

ddnoNJi.jpg The Federal Republic of Hushkonia is yet again riddled with political problems. Following an attempted coup by members of the air force, all military aircraft were destroyed in 2018. Now under UN Resolution 8576, no new military aircraft can be procured, “…unless demonstrably offering no threat to the neighbouring countries or region.” The government noticed a loophole in this; if they picked the worst aircraft possible they could still rebuild their air force. The UN resolution also banned the nation from converting civilian or historical types, meaning they had to procure types that were still in active military service in 2019. With this in mind the Huskonian Air Force went shopping for the world’s worst operational aircraft.  —————————————————————————————————————————————-

Fighters 

Shenyang F-6 ‘Kim Jong’s Longjohns’

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Even Bangladesh, which is on a pretty tight budget, got rid of their’s in 2014. Yet the F-6 — a Chinese MiG-19, a type that first flew in 1952 —  is still operated by the North Korean Air Force. And an aircraft that has been obsolete for at least forty years is an excellent choice for the air force of Hushkonia. No missiles, no search radar, a slow top speed and terrible pilot situational awareness all count against a fighter designed to fight F-86s and B-47s in a world long gone.
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 IAIO Qaher-313 ‘Qaher as folk’ e5myeq9znfv01.jpg Iran’s 2013 announcement of a new stealth fighter was greeted with bewilderment, derision and incredulous curiosity by Western observers. Was it a toy? A mock-up? Could it even fly? Whatever the truth, Huskitonia will be the first export customer for the deeply weird 313. Attack helicopter IAR-317 Airfox ‘Samantha Mambo Foxtons’  mTWW0PN-1.jpg When a shopping trolley loves an Alouette you get an Airfox. When Hushkonia found a Romanian drugs cartel using this remarkable machine they immediately took out their cheque books, arguing that legally the cartel had an air force. Bomber Xian Y-7 ‘Cokehead’ The Sudanese Air Force use the Antonov An-24 tactical transport as a makeshift bomber rolling unguided bombs out of the rear cargo doors. Inaccurate, vulnerable and slow, the An-24 is a terrible bomber – we’ll take ten please, maybe Chinese Y-7s.antonov-an-24263032-xian-y-7-06.jpg Jet trainer/maritime patrol/armed reconnaissance  PZL TS-11 Iskra ‘The Iskranoplan’ 1918_a_PZL_TS-11-200SB_Bis-DF(R)_Iskra_I_of_OSzl_of_the_Polish_Air_Force.jpgIskra Arabella Lawrence is a British plus-size model who refused to serve as our maritime patrol aircraft. Fortunately, the next best thing, the Polish Iskra, was willing to serve. The Iskra remains in service with the Polish Air Force — despite it being 2019 and the Iskra dating back to 1960. 10 worst Soviet aircraft here
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Iskra Arabella Lawrence, not to be confused with the TS-11.
Basic Trainer  AMD Alarus CH2000 Let’s meet up in the CH2000′ KathrynsReport.jpg Look at it. Transport Alenia C-27A ‘Sparta tomata’ While the C-27J Spartan is brilliant, the US ‘Alpha’ version has proved a huge flop. $486 million was spent on 20 secondhand C-27As (from the Italian air force) for the Afghan Air Force. They proved practically unserviceable, probably as spare parts were no longer made.  This half-a-billion purchase resulted in 16 C-27As being sold as scrap to an Afghan construction company for $32,000. The four remaining aircraft were stored at Ramstein Air Base, Germany before being sold to Huskonia.  Afghan_Air_Force_C-27A.jpg 10 worst German aircraft here Tanker Boeing KC-46 Pegasus ‘The 7 ‘666’ 7′ KC46-Pegasus-Maintenance-Training_HighRes_3 In 2001, the USAF began a programme to replace its oldest KC-135E Stratotanker tankers, and selected Boeing’s KC-767. By 2003 the Pentagon smelt something fishy with the deal and paused the project while corruption investigations took place. It turned out that the deal was indeed crooked. In October 2004, one Darleen Druyun was sentenced to nine months in prison for corruption, fined $5,000 (she was allegedly on a $250K salary with Boeing and had received a $50,000 sign-up bonus). Druyun was also investigated for a 1993 McDonnell Douglas scandal and would later be found guilty of dodgy dealings in connection with the Boeing Small Diameter Bomb contract. The Air Force’s KC-767A contract was officially cancelled in January 2006. A new search for the now desperately aged tankers began. When USAF picked the Airbus/Northrop Grumman KC-45 in 2008 they chose a winner, a world-beating versatile tanker. However, Boeing didn’t like Europeans muscling in on their turf and kicked up a fuss — and eventually their entry, the considerably more speculative KC-46 (based on the Boeing 767 again) won. 11 years later the Airbus design is serving seven nations with aplomb and the KC-46 is still in testing as USAF soldiers on with tankers as old the hills. The aircraft are too late, too expensive —with $3.2 billion cost overruns, additionally “The Air Force is withholding as much as $28 million from the final payment on each aircraft as a financial hook to ensure Boeing makes the necessary improvements.”  Despite the USAF’s huge thirst for new tankers, only 179 KC-46s will be procured while a new generation tanker is being studied. The Pegasus is thus the perfect tanker for the HuAF. An additional plus is that none of the HuAF have a refuelling capability anyway. (In late February 2019, the KC-46 fleet was grounded following the discovery of tools and debris within the aircraft, left from an allegedly ‘sloppy’ manufacturing process.) 10 worst US aircraft here VVIP transport ‘Careless love’ Aeroflot_Tupolev_Tu-154M_RA-85643_Mishin-1.jpg Loud, fuel thirsty and crashy, the Tu-154 is perfect for our Presidential transport. ————– Thanks to Thomas Lovegrove for his generous help in creating this.

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The Supermarine S7: An Exercise in Whimsy

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Supermarine S6B
Aeroplanes never got more beautiful than the heroic entrants of the Schneider Trophy contests of the ’20s and ’30s. Murder to fly, the greatest of these unforgiving overpowered brutes was the S6 designed by R.J. Mitchell, father of the Spitfire. We consider what an even greater racer from Mitchell might have looked like. 

I suspect I am not alone in having a fascination with every aspect of aviation, but within that there being a few areas of particular interest. Top of the pile for me is the Schneider Trophy, very specifically the last two races in 1929 and 1931. The reason is probably because these aircraft represent the ultimate combination of Art Deco (another passion of mine) and high speed. As always with these things, look deeper into the rabbit hole and you tend to find more to draw you in.

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An example of Art Deco architecture, the Crown of the General Electric Building  (1933)

So it was that, whilst discussing details of the S6 online with a well known author, the speculative question “If he’d had funding immediately after the race in ’29, what could Mitchell have produced?” was brought up. An ‘S7’ as it were.  Having a little knowledge and a vivid imagination I thought I’d try to provide an answer – or at least a plausible starting point for further discussion.

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There is a clear linear development from the Supermarine S4, through the S5 and S6 (in its various guises) to the Spitfire. Bar the S6-esque cowling, the Type 244 ‘original Spitfire’ was so far removed from this line that I think it can be seen as an aberration. Of course the Spitfire itself was built for a different role but it is still a high performance single seat monoplane. Given all this I think its fair to assume that both Mitchell and Rolls Royce would have continued along the path of refinement and evolution rather than resorting to radical revolution. So I find my start point and from here we can discount Fiat’s route of bolting two engines together for the Macchi M.C.72, retractable floats,  hydroplanes or other similar wildcard solutions. Moving from what inhabits the realms outside of what can be considered I think the probable basic lines of development can be split into four areas:

      1. Power.
      2. Control during take off and in flight.
      3. Cooling.
      4. General improvement in aerodynamics.
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        Supermarine S5

Power: The S5 had a Napier Lion 12 cylinder motor that was giving just shy of 1300 BHP by 1929. For the S6 Rolls Royce produced the “R” which started out at about 1900 BHP and got up to 2800 in record trim by 1931. An impressive development on the edge of the technological limits of the day and, I suspect, as far as they could go with it. Given the principle of building on what was known I could see Rolls Royce producing a “Super R” through either scaling up the basic design to increase capacity or adding more cylinders to turn it into a V16. The automotive world was already working on this configuration at the time and its inherent balance would have been a bonus. Either way this would have resulted in a longer and heavier engine, moving the aircraft centre of gravity forwards but by return giving more power. The requirement to keep it cool, already marginal with the S6, would of course be made even worse.

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Control: Control issues are a constant problem with building extreme high performance aircraft. With the S6 the take off was fraught because of torque reaction digging one float in and causing an uncontrollable yaw during the early stages, transitioning to a desperate clawing into the air with  the control column pulled fully back as she unstuck. The super-coarse pitch of the Fairey-Reed propeller was needed to get the top speed but it was, by default, operating at its very lowest performance envelope during this phase of the flight. From this I think that a variable pitch prop would have had to be looked at to deal with an increased problem due to the greater power.

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RJ Mitchell’s work on racers informed his creation of the Spitfire.

A fully variable system was patented in 1924 so, although uncommon, it was not new by 1929. A more robust solution may have been to adopt a pre-set system similar to that used on the DH88 Comet of  1934. In this a small flat disc protrudes in front of the spinner and, once a set speed is reach, it pushes back and coarsens the pitch of the blades. It can only be reset once the engine is off and the aircraft has returned to land (or water) but this isn’t an issue for a racing aircraft. The biggest area of concern with the handling characteristics in flight were down to the centre of gravity being too far back, causing pitch changes at speed. The larger engine would at least help negate some of this.

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Cooling: The S6 was rather famously described by Mitchell as “a flying radiator” and the significance of this can be understood from the fact that during the Schneider Trophy race the aircraft was flown to the coolant temperature rather than to aerodynamic limitations or simply with the throttle pushed as far as it would go towards the firewall. Oil coolers flank the fuselage with the oil tank in the fin (giving a large cooling area in itself) whilst the upper and lower wing surfaces along with the upper faces of the floats are all coolant radiators. One area that hasn’t been fully exploited is the fuselage to the rear of the cockpit. If this was developed out to a continuous oval section then it would allow for dorsal and ventral surface radiators to be mounted here. Something that would once again move the centre of gravity back a bit but I suspect, overall, having a smaller influence than the larger engine.

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General Improvements: When I was fortunate enough to see Southampton’s S6 in bits what really struck me is that its a very simple aircraft. The application of 1930’s technology is highly sophisticated but crucially the aircraft is simply built to carry a powerful engine with as small a cross sectional area as possible and to remove heat. Oh, and to squeeze a pilot in there somewhere as well. In my proposed “S7” the overall structure of the aircraft would have to grow to cope with the extra power and weight of the ‘Super R’ and, along with the radiators on the rear fuselage, this may mean that the whole wing surface need not be used to get rid of heat. The enclosing edges of the radiators would still have to be straight edged as the ones on the S6 leaked and a curved perimeter would make sealing them even more tricky, but it does mean that more form can be give to the wing plan through using additional nose and trailing edge pieces. Looking at the S6 wing tip and tail the classic high aspect ratio ellipse leading edge / low aspect ratio ellipse trailing edge is already apparent.  This plan form was seen as a way of efficiently distributing the structure and the Spitfire show’s how Mitchell eventually managed to realise it as a “pure” design. It wasn’t just Mitchell following this theory either with the Short Crusader Schneider Trophy contender of 1927, among others, having a greatly exaggerated elliptical wing. With the removal of the need to maximise wing radiators and more development time RJ may well have got there sooner.

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Macchi M.C.72

I see no reason why the fuel would not stay in the floats, as with the S6, but the final area that I think may have changed is the overall aircraft shape development. Up to the S6 Mitchell displays an almost pathological obsession with reducing the cross sectional area at every point along the aircraft. However this is only part of the story with parasitic drag being an area that could have been subsequently improved. If we look at the Macchi M.C.72 (that set the airspeed record at 440.7 mph in 1934)  it has a close cowled engine but not to the same extent as the S6, allowing a more progressive change in shape with fewer projections. Extrapolating this out to filleted wing roots may be pushing it a bit but if the time in the wind tunnel had been there then – who knows? Safer ground I think is the move to a fully enclosed cockpit. This reflects the record breaking trim of the Gloster VI in 1929 and surely, in the pursuit of aerodynamic efficiency, this would have been looked at? It may well have made the already poor visibility worse but a drop down or sliding perspex panel could at least have been used to allow a clear view out of the side when landing. With a fully enclosed cockpit comes the need for an improved air inlet, something that was introduced as a post build modification on the S6, so I’ve provided a couple of scoops on the top of the fuselage away from the exhaust gasses. The final aspect is the shape of air inlets and outlets where I’ve drawn on the Spitfire aesthetics more than the S6, although I did think ejector exhausts were a step too far.

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Gloster VI

So there we have it, my ideas on what a fully developed S7 may have looked like, and why. It may be you agree with all, some, or none of this but the fun is in the speculation. After all, unless some previously undiscovered document comes to light, its something that we will never truly know.

Supermarine S7 By Actuarius

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* There is no scientific evidence for these claims.

How good is China’s J-10C fighter? We ask Justin Bronk from the RUSI think-tank

119589_88539_800_auto_jpg.jpg The Chinese J-10 is in service in large, and growing, numbers. The latest version, the J-10C, is a formidable machine. We spoke to Justin Bronk, Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at the RUSI think-tank to find out more.  No nation has more new aircraft programmes than China, and the progress it has made in the twenty years has been spectacular. In the field of fighter aircraft much media attention has been paid to the rather spectacular J-20, a monstrous stealthy combat aircraft comparable in some respects to the US’ F-22, while less has been paid to the J-10. J-10C RCS about 1 square meters, basically can be said to be a quasi stealth fighter.jpg The J-10 entered service in 2006 and since than around 350 have been built, more than the number of French Rafale, or Swedish Gripen and very close to the number of F-35s. With an estimated empty weight of 8850 kg and maximum weight of 19277 kg it is comparable to the F-16, as is its reheated thrust of around 130kN. The latest version, the J-10C, is the most potent – with a modern AESA radar and the ability to carry the PL-15 long range air-to-air missile, a formidable weapon in the same class as Europe’s much lauded Meteor. We asked Justin Bronk how the aircraft would fare against the F-16, the most widely used modern fighter aircraft. 137115186_15238844456601n.jpg “On J-10C in Beyond Visual Range combat; kinematically, it is likely to be somewhere close to a later Block F-16; the original J-10A’s thrust-weight ratio most likely having degraded due to weight growth as more advanced sensors, stores and kit such as HMS have been added.” — the J-10C’s thrust-to-weight, an important measure for how ‘energetic’ the aircraft is, remains decent- above 1.1 -1 in a typical combat configuration. “With a light airframe, relaxed stability, decent (although not stellar) thrust to weight ratio and large canards, the J-10C is very agile in airshow configuration and the option for thrust vectoring only increases this capability at low speeds. However, the light airframe and small size relative to fighters like the J-20, Typhoon or F-15 mean that external stores and fuel tanks will have a more serious impact on both performance and agility than on larger fighters.”

D0ViGLvW0AATKCg.jpgChina has long struggled with aero-engine technology, so how good are the J-10C’s WS10s? “The WS-10 series has suffered from persistent problems with engine life, mean time between failures and throttle-spool response time. Whilst it has improved sufficiently to enter quantity production for later J-10Bs and J-11s, the Russian AL-31FN Series 3 developed for the J-10B is still a superior engine on almost all metrics aside from cost. Chinese military turbofan engines are improving rapidly but are at best only at par with Russian equivalents and are not yet in a position to compete directly with European or American designs.”

The PL-15 missile is something of a bogeyman to US planners, as if fully operational and as good as the Chinese say it condemns AMRAAM-armed legacy platforms to a position of vulnerability. web7-2017-3-j-10c-new-aams.jpg Bronk believes the Pl-15 is not yet fully operational, “The PL-15 is certainly being shown off on carriage flights with a number of different PLAAF types, so being somewhere around what we in the West would term Initial Operating Capability but not near Full Operational Clearance is probably a decent bet. There is a fair bit of concern in the US fighter community about the PL-15; its size and design should allow it to technically outrange the AIM-120 series and a proper active radar seeker head gives a lot more tactical options than older semi-active Russian and Chinese ‘sticks’.” Though mechanically scanned radars are considered a technologically of the past, they remain the most common fighter sensor in the West. The J-10C has an Active Electronically Scanning Array radar, “Finally, its AESA radar should give the J-10C a significant advantage over older Mech-Scan equipped F-16s in the BVR arena; although having a great deal more experience in the technology, American fighter AESA sets are likely to remain superior where fitted especially in terms of advanced low-probability of intercept/detection (LPI/LPD) scanning modes.” In summary, Bronk firmly places the J-10C in Generation 4.5* “All in all, the J-10C is a significant leap into true ‘4.5th Generation’ capability for the PLAAF compared to the earlier variants of this distinctive bird.  *something he defines as including “low-observability to radar; the ability to supercruise (fly at supersonic speed without using afterburners); and extreme manoeuvrability at all speeds.”.
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US Pacific fighters versus the Luftwaffe Bf 109 and Fw 190

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A reader of our site asked us how US Pacific fighters would fare against the Luftwaffe’s finest – the Messerschmitt Bf 109 and Focke-Wulf Fw 190. Curious to know more we asked HushKit contributor Edward Ward to consider the matter. 

The interesting thing about the F4F, F6F and F4U is that we do have a tantalising hint of their efficacy against late Luftwaffe fighters as all three were used by the Fleet Air Arm in Europe. Sadly (in a way) the Corsair never met a German fighter in combat but both the Grummans did and the results were positive. Oddly, despite never actually engaging in air-to-air combat over Europe, a Corsair was captured by the Luftwaffe and extensively tested by them. The results for the Grummans were more interesting. Surprisingly the first American-built aircraft to score a kill in British service was a Wildcat (then named a Martlet) when two Martlet Is of 804 sqn Fleet Air Arm shot down a Junkers 88 on Christmas Day 1940. Later Martlets operated in the Western Desert in a shore based role. Finding out detailed information abut this period is difficult. About the best I can manage is that they operated in “ground attack and escort missions” so one would have thought they would have met the Luftwaffe however I can only find records for one FIAT G.50 and four Ju 88s shot down. More research needed. There is an Osprey ‘Aircraft of the Aces’ volume on Royal Navy aces of WWII that would I suspect give an excellent account of this period but alas I don’t own it… All this occurred before the US had even entered the war.

This is what Eric Brown had to say about the Martlet/Wildcat and its chances against the Luftwaffe. It is worth noting that although more famous as a test pilot, Eric Brown had flown the Martlet in combat from escort carriers against Fw 200 Condors.
Martlet II Versus Messerschmitt Bf 109F

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The Wildcat, although faster and more manoeuvrable than the Sea Hurricane, was still some 60mph slower than the German fighter. The lower the altitude the less the odds favoured the Me109F. The Wildcat also had a heavier punch to deliver.

Verdict: As a dogfighter the Wildcat was superior to the Me 109F, but the initiative always lay with the German because of superior performance. At low altitudes the Me109F had the edge over the Wildcat, but not by much.

Martlet IV Versus Focke-Wulf 19A-4 and A-4/U8: The only superiority that could be claimed by the Wildcat was its ability to outturn the German fighter, but turning doesn’t win battles. In every other department the Fw 190 was in command. Even in the fighter-bomber role the German faced minimal danger, and he could always jettison his bombs in an emergency to defend himself.
Verdict: The superiority of the Fw 190A-4 and A-4/U8 was so comprehensive that the Wildcat had little or no chance to do anything more than perhaps harry the German enough to make him jettison his bombs prematurely.

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However by the time the Wildcat VI was on the scene (1944) his assessment was rather less rosy: “Wildcat VI Versus Messerschmitt 109G-6: The agile little Wildcat could outmanoeuvre the latest version of the Me 109, but the performance differential had widened and the German could run rings around the Wildcat. If the Me 109G-6 was tempted to mix it in a dogfight, the Wildcat had a better than even chance of success.Verdict: The Wildcat was no real match for the Me 109G-6, but the German could not afford to take liberties with his angry little opponent.”

Wildcat VI Versus Fw 190Focke-Wulf-Fw190-A-4-WNr-614-Benghazi-Libya-1942.jpg

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The formidable Fw 190 held all the advantages in this contest, and there was really no way out of the dilemma for the Wildcat. Even in a turning circle it could not evade the German fighter for the first 120 degrees, and that was more than enough time for the powerful armament of the Fw 190 to take effect.

Verdict: The Wildcat had little chance of surviving single combat with the Fw 190. Its only hope lay in overwhelming the German by force of numbers.

Ultimately most RN Martlets and Wildcats saw service on escort carriers, far from German fighters. However, despite its apparent performance shortfall, In March 1945, Wildcats shot down four Messerschmitt Bf 109Gs over Norway. These were the FAA’s last victories with Wildcats.

With regard to the Hellcat, only the Royal Navy actually flew it in combat against Luftwaffe fighters. US Hellcats did see service over Europe when they operated off USS Tulagi during Operation Dragoon (the invasion of Southern France) in August 1944. During Dragoon, USN Hellcats shot down eight German aircraft but all were bombers or transports. A year or so earlier, four British Hellcats were bounced by a mixture of Fw 190s and Bf 109Gs off the Norwegian coast. One Hellcat was lost but the other three each claimed the destruction of one German fighter each. Hardly much to go on but the Hellcat came out on top in that action at least.

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If I were to speculate on what would have happened had the two later Navy aircraft been deployed in numbers in Europe I suspect a similar situation as that which developed with the P-47 and P-51 would have developed, the Hellcat is slower than the Corsair (and very much slower than either a Thunderbolt or a Mustang) but is a very forgiving aircraft and also insanely rugged (a proportionately much greater number of F6Fs survived being hit by flak for example than did F4Us) and thus it would seem likely that the Hellcat would be employed more as a fighter bomber rather than a straight air-to-air fighter. If intercepted the Hellcats exceptional manoeuvrability (it could follow the A6M Zero through most manoeuvres, and that aircraft may well have been the most agile of the war) would have proved difficult to deal with for both German fighters but they would have been able to break off at will.

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The F4U was a rather different prospect, with a significantly better performance than the Hellcat it is likely that any service it might have given against the Luftwaffe would have been impressive. There are caveats however – the afore-mentioned Eric Brown said he would prefer the Hellcat in a dogfight, however during the second world war pilots in every nation (except maybe Japan) were desperately trying to avoid dogfighting wherever possible and use dive and zoom climb tactics. This would have favoured the Corsair which excelled in the vertical plane. Whether it would have done as well as it did against the Japanese is unlikely however. The Luftwaffe, although a shadow of its former self by 1945 was still a dangerous foe and did not suffer the same technological disparity (in general) as did the late war Japanese fighters compared to their principal American adversaries. It is possible of course that it may not have fared so well, the P-39 Airacobra was generally regarded as unsatisfactory in the Pacific theatre yet was extremely successful against the Germans over the Eastern Front (of US built fighters only the P-51 would score more air to air kills) However, we do have at least a glimpse of what might have transpired in reality as the US tested the Fw 190 against the F4U and F6F and the results are here. It is worth noting however that the Focke Wulf in this case was an early model and not indicative of the models that the Corsair and Hellcat would have actually met in combat had they been committed to the European theatre.

In short, what would actually have transpired is anyone’s guess. The American fighters were formidable but then, so were the German aircraft. It may have depended a great deal on when they were committed. Corsairs fist flew into combat in August 1942, at that point the Luftwaffe was still probably the most powerful, best trained, most experienced and arguably best equipped Air Force in the world. Any fighter thrown at them at that time would have suffered. Had the Luftwaffe of early 1945 been their foe though it would have been a different story as most of the veterans were either dead or wounded, there was precious little fuel for operations and the training programme had collapsed.

All of which is a long-winded way of saying it’s pretty much anyone’s guess what would have actually happened.

— Edward Ward

 

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